Sales figures released this week reveal a substantial decline in revenues for both GSK and Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines during the final quarter of 2024, reflecting diminished vaccination rates following adjusted U.S. health guidelines.
Pfizer disclosed on Tuesday that its RSV vaccine Abrysvo experienced a 62% decrease in sales compared to the same period in 2023. The pharmaceutical giant attributed this significant downturn primarily to reduced vaccination rates among eligible older adults in the United States, following the narrowing of vaccination recommendations during summer 2024.
Similarly, GSK reported on Wednesday that its competing RSV vaccine Arexvy saw a 69% year-over-year decline in sales. The company cited lower demand stemming from more restrictive recommendations for individuals aged 60 to 74, alongside inventory-related factors.
The market dynamics shifted after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s advisory panel modified its guidance, now recommending RSV vaccination specifically for high-risk adults aged 60 to 74, rather than the previous broader recommendation that encompassed all adults over 60. The guidance maintains that all individuals 75 and older should receive vaccination.
While both pharmaceutical companies had previously indicated the potential impact of these guideline changes, analysts from Jefferies noted in January that RSV vaccination rates remained subdued even as uptake of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines increased.
Despite these challenges, both companies have secured expanded approvals for their vaccines. GSK’s Arexvy received authorization for at-risk adults aged 50 to 59, while Pfizer’s Abrysvo gained approval for at-risk adults between 18 and 59 years old. Pfizer’s vaccine has found additional success in maternal immunization, providing temporary protection to newborns, which helped partially offset the fourth quarter decline.
The CDC has yet to provide guidance regarding the need for additional doses to maintain protection against RSV for those who have already received initial vaccination. Jefferies analyst Peter Welford indicated in October that the likelihood of implementing a two-year vaccination schedule for Arexvy appeared low.
Recent developments include the FDA’s addition of warning labels to both vaccines regarding an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome, a rare neurological condition.
Looking ahead, GSK announced plans to enhance its research and development investments in respiratory medicines, among other therapeutic areas. While the company anticipates modest declines in vaccine unit revenue for the coming year, it projects overall business growth between 3% and 5%.
These developments mark a significant shift in the RSV vaccine landscape, which has seen GSK maintain market leadership since Arexvy’s initial approval in 2023, despite Pfizer’s efforts to increase its market presence. The impact of regulatory changes and evolving vaccination guidelines continues to shape the commercial performance of these important preventive medicines.
The current situation reflects broader challenges in maintaining vaccination rates following regulatory adjustments and highlights the complex interplay between public health recommendations and commercial vaccine deployment. As both companies adapt to these market
conditions, the future of RSV vaccination may depend on further clinical evidence and potential updates to public health guidelines.